Analysis of Daredevil Issues 1 to 60

Introduction and Material and Methods

      In order to isolate potential key issues to focus my investing efforts on, I used a data analysis approach based on established values from two collecting universes within in the run of the silver age issues I gathered value data from a variety of sources representing both serious investors (Insiders – I) and not serious investors (Outsiders-O). This data is current as on 4/2015. I choose to keep my methodology and data gathering proprietary at this time but I am giving my readers a simplified representation of my data that I currently use for my decisions.

Results – Daredevil Issues 1 to 60

Table 1. Bias Scores (B SCORE) of All Issues in the Run

Run
Issue
B Score

Run
Issue
B Score
DD
#1
2078

DD
#31
70
DD
#2
455

DD
#32
-41
DD
#3
569

DD
#33
-69
DD
#4
549

DD
#34
-33
DD
#5
340

DD
#35
-63
DD
#6
388.6

DD
#36
-24
DD
#7
5001

DD
#37
-1
DD
#8
400.2

DD
#38
27
DD
#9
48.6

DD
#39
-34
DD
#10
180.6

DD
#40
-78
DD
#11
3.6

DD
#41
-36.6
DD
#12
267.2

DD
#42
-53.6
DD
#13
76.6

DD
#43
13.6
DD
#14
245.6

DD
#44
-69.6
DD
#15
145.2

DD
#45
-49.6
DD
#16
760.4

DD
#46
-1.6
DD
#17
363.4

DD
#47
3.4
DD
#18
-21.2

DD
#48
-52.6
DD
#19
144.6

DD
#49
-67.6
DD
#20
95.6

DD
#50
-50
DD
#21
45.6

DD
#51
-56.6
DD
#22
-85.4

DD
#52
-87.6
DD
#23
230.6

DD
#53
1
DD
#24
-59.4

DD
#54
157.4
DD
#25
-44.4

DD
#55
-32.2
DD
#26
42.6

DD
#56
11.8
DD
#27
57.2

DD
#57
22.8
DD
#28
-32.4

DD
#58
-78.2
DD
#29
-5.4

DD
#59
-2.2
DD
#30
88.4

DD
#60
7.8



      Using the data based on that described in the introduction, I calculated the I/O bias between the two groups and adjusted the scores to account for the extreme issues (DD 1 and 7). I note the very high insider bias with dark purple and high bias using light purple. Grey issues (if present) are on the watch list. Note the low plus/ low minus numbers reflect a sight bias by the unsophisticated outsider group followed by the more extreme biases. I use the Average followed by Std. Dev. as a guide into these cutoffs. (Note the term guide). These numbers only refer to this data set unless I combine multiple runs. So you cannot draw conclusions between independent runs and numbers throughout this blog. The data suggests a bias does exist within the run and invites a deeper focus (see Tables 2 and 3).



Table 2.  I/O SLN numbers calculated for issues

Run
Issue
I SLN
O SLN

Run
Issue
I SLN
O SLN
DD
#1
459.6
720.7

DD
#31
9.1
7.2
DD
#2
76.5
132.5

DD
#32
4.2
7.2
DD
#3
60.8
86.5

DD
#33
3.6
7.2
DD
#4
51.2
72.1

DD
#34
4.3
7.2
DD
#5
35.2
44.6

DD
#35
3.3
7.2
DD
#6
31.4
30.3

DD
#36
5.5
7.2
DD
#7
273.1
132.5

DD
#37
6.0
7.2
DD
#8
29.6
24.5

DD
#38
8.1
7.2
DD
#9
12.6
23.1

DD
#39
4.5
7.2
DD
#10
18.6
23.1

DD
#40
2.5
7.2
DD
#11
9.6
15.9

DD
#41
4.2
5.8
DD
#12
20.7
17.3

DD
#42
3.1
5.8
DD
#13
12.6
15.9

DD
#43
11.7
8.6
DD
#14
18.6
15.9

DD
#44
2.6
5.8
DD
#15
14.7
17.3

DD
#45
3.5
5.8
DD
#16
47.2
21.9

DD
#46
5.4
5.8
DD
#17
26.9
21.9

DD
#47
5.0
5.8
DD
#18
10.7
15.0

DD
#48
4.8
5.8
DD
#19
12.8
10.4

DD
#49
2.6
5.8
DD
#20
12.2
10.4

DD
#50
3.4
7.2
DD
#21
10.2
8.6

DD
#51
2.6
5.8
DD
#22
2.9
8.6

DD
#52
2.6
5.8
DD
#23
16.6
8.6

DD
#53
4.9
3.6
DD
#24
4.5
8.6

DD
#54
11.5
5.8
DD
#25
4.8
8.6

DD
#55
4.1
4.3
DD
#26
8.1
8.6

DD
#56
5.4
4.3
DD
#27
9.2
10.1

DD
#57
5.7
4.3
DD
#28
5.3
8.6

DD
#58
3.4
4.3
DD
#29
6.1
8.6

DD
#59
4.7
4.3
DD
#30
10.3
9.4

DD
#60
4.9
4.2



      In order to begin this deeper analysis I developed a measure called SLN. The SLN looks at the slope of the values in both the I/O databases from 9.4 to 6 conditions. Table 1 shows the SLN values of DD 1 to 60.  

     As I look across the data landscape, I see a lot of Weakly Positive biased issues to focus your investments. DD #7 is very unusual in this and other runs. It was really ignored by the Outsiders as compared to the insiders! To bring that observation home see Table 2A. DD#7 is really odd and make me wonder should I invest in any other DD issue in this issue group! Compare to FF!
Big difference.

Table 2A. Counts and % of SLN from All Runs

Counts
SLN
SLN
SLN
Issues 1 to 40
High I
Weak I
O Biased
DD
1
7
32
Avengers
5
5
30
Xmen
8
20
12
Thor
8
9
23
ASM
8
6
26
FF
13
0
27




% of 40
High I
Weak I
O Biased
DD
2.5
17.5
80
Avengers
12.5
12.5
75
Xmen
20
50
30
Thor
20
22.5
57.5
ASM
20
15
65
FF
32.5
0
67.5

          I have added some more color indicators. Deep Green and Light Green are denoting the issues with definite Insider Bias and are worthy of further digging for investment choices. On the other hand, I denoted the issues with Outsider Bias with Deep Red and Light Rose. I also see an interesting pattern in that most of the first issues of the DD are in the Red.

(I note that extreme high grades equal or above 9.4 are always going to be valued greatly by both groups just due to the rarity).

      In conclusion based on this data, I suggest the green (dark and light) issues are the investment targets to focus on the highest grades possible while the red/rose/white denoted issues are targets for much less if any focus except if Table 3 data suggests otherwise.  I would consider DD#7 for its unusualness!



Table 3. Adjusted Average Differences of I/O Data at Selected Grades

Run
Issue
C 9.4
C 8
C 6

Run
Issue
C 9.4
C 8
C 6
DD
#1
$$
$$
$$

DD
#31
$
?

DD
#2
$$
XX


DD
#32
XX


DD
#3
$$
XX


DD
#33
XX
?

DD
#4
$$
XX
X

DD
#34
XX


DD
#5
$$
X


DD
#35
XX


DD
#6
$$
X


DD
#36
X
?

DD
#7
$$
$$
$

DD
#37
X


DD
#8
$$
X
?

DD
#38
?
$

DD
#9
XX
XX
X

DD
#39
XX


DD
#10
$
X
X

DD
#40
XX


DD
#11
X
X
?

DD
#41
XX
?

DD
#12
$$
X
X

DD
#42
XX


DD
#13
?
X


DD
#43
$
$
?
DD
#14
$$
X


DD
#44
XX


DD
#15
$
X
X

DD
#45
XX

?
DD
#16
$$
$
X

DD
#46
X


DD
#17
$$
X
X

DD
#47
X


DD
#18
X
$


DD
#48
X
$

DD
#19
$
X


DD
#49
XX


DD
#20
$
?


DD
#50
XX
X

DD
#21
$
$


DD
#51
XX


DD
#22
XX



DD
#52
XX
?

DD
#23
$$
?


DD
#53
X
?

DD
#24
XX



DD
#54
$


DD
#25
XX



DD
#55
X
?

DD
#26
X



DD
#56
X
?

DD
#27




DD
#57
X


DD
#28
XX



DD
#58
XX
$

DD
#29
X



DD
#59
X


DD
#30
$



DD
#60
X




                 
         Given the I/O differences in the data across grades, I focused on the average of those differences between the I and O data. I adjusted these averages to normalize it and allow a sharper clarity in the results. That data is presented in Table 3.

         Analysis of the Table 3 data revealed that I/O data in Tables 1 and 2 may not reflect the whole truth, the “Buy” signal disappears as you see the data lands on the grade of 9.4 for the Insiders choice on these issues. Note only 3 issues are favored across the three grade levels by the I crowd (DD #1, #7 and #16). In contrast, 19 issues show only the I/O bias by the insider investors mainly in the Grade of 9.4.  I also have denoted via gray color on the issues that certainly need to be watched. Finally the other issues are all pretty much biased by the outsiders over the insiders’ opinions and buying habits. These issues would not be recommended.

Based on this data, I would conclude one might focus on the 3 bright green denoted issues in the lesser cheaper grades while the dark green issues would those you should focus on only in highest grades or not at all. The only concern is the SLN number that shows DD#7 could be the show for this run. I do not know how to dig deeper into this issue now but I urge you to consider this data.

The grey ones if any are on the watch list. Other issues are not recommended for a focused effort at this time. Note this table may be of greater usage and certainly suggests a different approach as did the data in Table 2.  





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