Analysis of Avengers Issues #1 - 112

Introduction and Material and Methods

      In order to isolate potential key issues to focus my investing efforts on, I used a data analysis approach based on established values from two collecting universes within in the run of the silver age issues I gathered value data from a variety of sources representing both serious investors (Insiders – I) and not serious investors (Outsiders-O). This data is current as on 4/2015. I choose to keep my methodology and data gathering proprietary at this time but I am giving my readers a simplified representation of my data that I currently use for my decisions.

Results – Avengers Issues #1 - 112

Table 1. Bias Scores (B SCORE) of All Issues in the Run

Run	Issue	B Score		Run	Issue	B Score
Avengers	#1	103925		Avengers	#57	935
Avengers	#2	2303		Avengers	#58	-28.2
Avengers	#3	1648		Avengers	#59	287.6
Avengers	#4	4772		Avengers	#60	41
Avengers	#5	1709		Avengers	#61	-26
Avengers	#6	235		Avengers	#62	-13
Avengers	#7	1275		Avengers	#63	4
Avengers	#8	914		Avengers	#64	-47.6
Avengers	#9	2300		Avengers	#65	-32.6
Avengers	#10	776		Avengers	#66	-65
Avengers	#11	509		Avengers	#67	47
Avengers	#12	267		Avengers	#68	-53
Avengers	#13	205		Avengers	#69	26.4
Avengers	#14	168		Avengers	#70	-27
Avengers	#15	252		Avengers	#71	-52.6
Avengers	#16	1878		Avengers	#72	-48.6
Avengers	#17	27		Avengers	#73	3.4
Avengers	#18	63		Avengers	#74	-45.6
Avengers	#19	362		Avengers	#75	0.4
Avengers	#20	105		Avengers	#76	-57.6
Avengers	#21	31		Avengers	#77	-49.6
Avengers	#22	-80		Avengers	#78	-85.6
Avengers	#23	230.4		Avengers	#79	7.4
Avengers	#24	-90.6		Avengers	#80	2.4
Avengers	#25	303		Avengers	#81	-22.6
Avengers	#26	15.4		Avengers	#82	37.4
Avengers	#27	28.4		Avengers	#83	339.6
Avengers	#28	477.4		Avengers	#84	0.4
Avengers	#29	67.4		Avengers	#85	-41.6
Avengers	#30	36.4		Avengers	#86	32.4
Avengers	#31	9.2		Avengers	#87	111.4
Avengers	#32	-15.8		Avengers	#88	-79.6
Avengers	#33	-4.8		Avengers	#89	-53
Avengers	#34	34.2		Avengers	#90	110.4
Avengers	#35	39.2		Avengers	#91	-45.6
Avengers	#36	-44.8		Avengers	#92	-71.4
Avengers	#37	39.2		Avengers	#93	571.2
Avengers	#38	-49.8		Avengers	#94	139.8
Avengers	#39	74.2		Avengers	#95	77.8
Avengers	#40	7.2		Avengers	#96	-32.2
Avengers	#41	14		Avengers	#97	162.4
Avengers	#42	51		Avengers	#98	-31.2
Avengers	#43	291		Avengers	#99	-20.2
Avengers	#44	203		Avengers	#100	-6.2
Avengers	#45	36		Avengers	#101	-1.8
Avengers	#46	-13		Avengers	#102	-136
Avengers	#47	-83.4		Avengers	#103	118
Avengers	#48	28.2		Avengers	#104	-102
Avengers	#49	65		Avengers	#105	75
Avengers	#50	-13		Avengers	#106	7
Avengers	#51	19		Avengers	#107	-45
Avengers	#52	40.2		Avengers	#108	34
Avengers	#53	-48.6		Avengers	#109	-28
Avengers	#54	-69.6		Avengers	#110	-49
Avengers	#55	343		Avengers	#111	-82
Avengers	#56	49.6		Avengers	#112	174

      Using the data based on that described in the introduction, I calculated the I/O bias between the two groups and adjusted the scores to account for the extreme issues (Avengers 1 and 4). I note the very high insider bias with dark purple and high bias using light purple. Grey issues (if present) are on the watch list. Note the low plus/ low minus numbers reflect a sight bias by the unsophisticated outsider group followed by the more extreme biases. I use the Average followed by Std. Dev. as a guide into these cutoffs. (Note the term guide). These numbers only refer to this data set unless I combine multiple runs. So you cannot draw conclusions between independent runs and numbers throughout this blog. The data suggests a bias does exist within the run and invites a deeper focus (see Tables 2 and 3).

Table 2.  I/O SLN numbers calculated for issues

Run	Issue		I SLN	O SLN		Run	Issue	I SLN	O SLN
Avengers	#1		3038.9	1492.0		Avengers	#57	47.4	34.8
Avengers	#2		110.8	149.2		Avengers	#58	7.8	17.9
Avengers	#3		75.4	89.5		Avengers	#59	11.4	6.0
Avengers	#4		226.6	298.4		Avengers	#60	4.3	5.0
Avengers	#5		63.8	59.7		Avengers	#61	3.1	5.0
Avengers	#6		33.3	69.6		Avengers	#62	3.5	5.0
Avengers	#7		48.7	39.8		Avengers	#63	4.3	5.0
Avengers	#8		37.7	39.8		Avengers	#64	2.5	4.0
Avengers	#9		79.3	59.7		Avengers	#65	2.6	4.0
Avengers	#10		32.8	29.8		Avengers	#66	3.6	7.5
Avengers	#11		32.5	49.7		Avengers	#67	6.5	7.5
Avengers	#12		16.1	19.9		Avengers	#68	2.8	5.0
Avengers	#13		13.7	19.9		Avengers	#69	4.9	4.0
Avengers	#14		12.1	19.9		Avengers	#70	3.0	5.0
Avengers	#15		14.3	19.9		Avengers	#71	4.6	9.0
Avengers	#16		67.5	49.7		Avengers	#72	2.0	3.9
Avengers	#17		8.5	14.9		Avengers	#73	3.3	3.9
Avengers	#18		8.2	14.9		Avengers	#74	2.3	3.9
Avengers	#19		16.3	14.9		Avengers	#75	3.2	3.9
Avengers	#20		10.3	19.9		Avengers	#76	2.0	3.9
Avengers	#21		7.8	14.9		Avengers	#77	1.9	3.9
Avengers	#22		5.1	14.9		Avengers	#78	1.6	3.9
Avengers	#23		11.3	9.0		Avengers	#79	3.6	3.9
Avengers	#24		3.1	9.0		Avengers	#80	3.1	3.9
Avengers	#25		16.6	19.9		Avengers	#81	2.6	3.9
Avengers	#26		5.2	9.0		Avengers	#82	4.1	3.9
Avengers	#27		5.6	9.0		Avengers	#83	15.7	5.8
Avengers	#28		22.5	9.0		Avengers	#84	2.8	3.9
Avengers	#29		6.1	9.0		Avengers	#85	2.5	3.9
Avengers	#30		5.3	9.0		Avengers	#86	4.1	3.9
Avengers	#31		4.4	7.0		Avengers	#87	6.5	3.9
Avengers	#32		3.5	7.0		Avengers	#88	2.0	3.9
Avengers	#33		4.2	7.0		Avengers	#89	2.1	4.9
Avengers	#34		5.3	7.0		Avengers	#90	5.8	3.9
Avengers	#35		5.1	7.0		Avengers	#91	1.8	3.9
Avengers	#36		3.0	7.0		Avengers	#92	2.3	5.8
Avengers	#37		6.6	7.0		Avengers	#93	20.1	16.5
Avengers	#38		3.0	7.0		Avengers	#94	7.7	7.8
Avengers	#39		6.0	7.0		Avengers	#95	5.5	7.8
Avengers	#40		4.4	7.0		Avengers	#96	3.7	7.8
Avengers	#41		4.2	5.0		Avengers	#97	5.8	5.8
Avengers	#42		4.9	5.0		Avengers	#98	1.6	4.9
Avengers	#43		11.0	5.0		Avengers	#99	2.3	4.9
Avengers	#44		8.7	5.0		Avengers	#100	5.6	9.7
Avengers	#45		4.4	5.0		Avengers	#101	2.0	1.9
Avengers	#46		3.4	5.0		Avengers	#102	1.4	2.4
Avengers	#47		2.5	6.0		Avengers	#103	4.5	2.4
Avengers	#48		5.1	7.0		Avengers	#104	1.4	2.4
Avengers	#49		5.3	5.0		Avengers	#105	3.2	2.4
Avengers	#50		4.4	5.0		Avengers	#106	1.4	2.4
Avengers	#51		4.4	5.0		Avengers	#107	1.3	2.4
Avengers	#52		5.6	7.0		Avengers	#108	2.0	2.4
Avengers	#53		3.8	9.0		Avengers	#109	1.6	2.4
Avengers	#54		6.4	9.0		Avengers	#110	3.1	4.9
Avengers	#55		18.6	5.0		Avengers	#111	4.1	4.9
Avengers	#56		5.6	6.0		Avengers	#112	6.4	4.9

      In order to begin this deeper analysis I developed a measure called SLN. The SLN looks at the slope of the values in both the I/O databases from 9.4 to 6 conditions. Table 1 shows the SLN values of Avengers Issues #1 - 112.  

      As I look across the data landscape, I see a lot of positive biased issues to focus your investments. I have added some more color indicators. Deep Green and Light Green are denoting the issues with definite Insider Bias and are worthy of further digging for investment choices. On the other hand, I denoted the issues with Outsider Bias with Deep Red and Light Rose. I see an interesting pattern in that most of the first issues of the Avengers are in the Red. This is different between this and other runs.

(I note that extreme high grades equal or above 9.4 are always going to be valued greatly by both groups just due to the rarity).

      In conclusion based on this data, I suggest the green (dark and light) issues are the investment targets to focus on the highest grades possible while the red/rose/white denoted issues are targets for much less if any focus except if Table 3 data suggests otherwise. 

Table 3. Adjusted Average Differences of I/O Data at Selected Grades

Issue	C9.4 ADF	C8 ADF	C6 ADF		Issue	C9.4 ADF	C8 ADF	C6 ADF
#1	$$	XX	XX		#57	$$	$	$
#2	$$	XX	X		#58	XX	?	X
#3	$$	X	?		#59	$	?	$
#4	$$	XX	XX		#60	XX	?	?
#5	$$	X	X		#61	XX	?	?
#6	$	X	$		#62	XX	?	?
#7	$$	?	$		#63	XX	$	?
#8	$$	X	$		#64	XX	?	?
#9	$$	X	?		#65	XX	?	?
#10	$$	$	X		#66	XX	$	?
#11	$	X	X		#67	X	$	?
#12	$	?	?		#68	XX	?	?
#13	X	X	X		#69	X	$	?
#14	X	X	X		#70	XX	?	?
#15	X	X	X		#71	XX	$	?
#16	$$	$	X		#72	XX	?	?
#17	XX	?	?		#73	XX	?	?
#18	XX	X	X		#74	XX	?	?
#19	$	?	X		#75	XX	?	?
#20	XX	X	X		#76	XX	?	?
#21	XX	X	?		#77	XX	?	?
#22	XX	X	?		#78	XX	?	?
#23	$	$	?		#79	XX	?	?
#24	XX	?	?		#80	XX	?	?
#25	$	?	?		#81	XX	?	?
#26	XX	?	?		#82	XX	?	?
#27	XX	?	?		#83	$	$	?
#28	$$	$	?		#84	XX	?	?
#29	XX	X	X		#85	XX	?	?
#30	XX	X	?		#86	XX	?	?
#31	XX	?	?		#87	X	$	$
#32	XX	X	?		#88	XX	$	?
#33	XX	?	?		#89	XX	?	?
#34	XX	?	?		#90	X	?	?
#35	XX	?	?		#91	XX	?	?
#36	XX	?	?		#92	XX	?	?
#37	X	$	?		#93	$	X	X
#38	XX	?	?		#94	X	X	?
#39	X	?	?		#95	XX	X	X
#40	XX	?	?		#96	XX	?	X
#41	XX	?	?		#97	XX	X	X
#42	X	?	?		#98	XX	X	X
#43	$	?	?		#99	XX	X	X
#44	?	?	?		#100	XX	$	X
#45	XX	?	?		#101	X	$	?
#46	XX	?	?		#102	XX	?	?
#47	XX	?	?		#103	X	?	?
#48	XX	?	?		#104	XX	$	?
#49	X	?	?		#105	X	?	?
#50	XX	$	?		#106	XX	?	?
#51	XX	?	?		#107	XX	?	?
#52	XX	?	?		#108	XX	?	?
#53	XX	?	?		#109	XX	?	?
#54	X	$	$		#110	XX	?	?
#55	$$	$	$		#111	XX	?	?
#56	X	?	?		#112	?	?	?

                 

         Given the I/O differences in the data across grades, I focused on the average of those differences between the I and O data. I adjusted these averages to normalize it and allow a sharper clarity in the results. That data is presented in Table 3.

         Analysis of the Table 3 data revealed that I/O data in Tables 1 and 2 may not reflect the whole truth, the “Buy” signal disappears as you see the data lands on the grade of 9.4 for the Insiders choice on these issues. Note only 9 issues are favored across the three grade levels by the I crowd (Avengers 7, 10, 16, 23, 28, 55, 57, 59, and 83). In contrast, 14 issues show only the I/O bias by the insider investors mainly in the Grade of 9.4.  I also have denoted via gray color on the issues that certainly need to be watched. Finally the other issues are all pretty much biased by the outsiders over the insiders’ opinions and buying habits. These issues would not be recommended.

Based on this data, I would conclude one might focus on the 9 bright green denoted issues in the lesser cheaper grades while the dark green issues would those you should focus on only in highest grades or not at all. The grey ones are on the watch list. Other issues are not recommended for a focused effort at this time. Note this table may be of greater usage and certainly suggests a different approach as did the data in Table 2.  

Table 4. Judgment Table ($$/$) vs. Outsider Bias (White/Grey)

COUNTS	Issues	$$/$	WHITE/GREY
Avengers	1 to 10	10	0
FF	1 to 10	9	1
Thor	83-97	9	1
ASM	15 to 9	6	4
X-Men	1 to 10	4	6

   

Just thought I would show you these data. Clearly separates Runs into groups that have similar profiles! So my rule would be All High Grade Avengers, FF and Thor issues 1 to 10 are a buy while you must apply selectivity to both the ASM and X-men runs. Do not buy as a fan here! Be strong!*

*One could plot out the entire runs as well to develop judgment tables to make investment choices quickly in an auction or convention setting.