The goal is a develop an information aggregation group dealing with predictions of comic book future prices.
I have had this idea for a while. If enough people are interested then it might occur.
1a) I have seen folks ask for opinions on issues etc. This proposal is a way to look across for these opinions and express them as odds and probabilities!
9) It can/will/should be fun! If not fun then it should not be done!
Table 2 shows a result of betting where the 100 investors bet on issues or an issue etc. The odds are now much different and show Insiders opinions. The groups believe the odds are 1 to 1 (50 prob) that Issue 3 will increase in value by X% in a year (TBD by the Group) etc.
If the group has enough different opinions but serious one then we can/might/hopefully be able "see" the future?
The group could go through a timetable where the bets are redone based on new information. We can chart odds up or down. Movie announcements etc. Over time probability charts will confirm the true probabilities. If the group says an issue is going to rise x% and assigns it a 50% then issues in that range should meet the goal of 50%. If we see its 30% then we adjust our outcomes accordingly.
This approach would take enough serious people > 50? from different prospectives with enough time to think about their opinions and have their pulse on the comic book world.
10) Maybe a start off here on the blog or move into a Facebook group or website to communicate and interact. Maybe begin by gathering together and seeing how many are interested. I choose 100 randomly. The big banks/fund groups do this all the time.
11) If interested let's see who is serious. The idea is now out of the bottle.
I am not proposing me as a leader but be glad to serve on an executive board who can drive this process. We will need a champion(s) though! Enough time and effort to kickstart it.
I think this can be a unique situation but I would not be surprised if this idea spreads and multiple groups spring up. Good, those groups could share data and refine the outcomes!
FYI the hypothesis is "A large but selective group can beat the individual in predictions of comic book future price/value moves"
Just comment here to begin the process. Thanks