Analysis of Tales of Suspense issues 39 to 99



Amazingly Secret Approach Using an Incredibly Novel Data Analysis Procedure for Comic Book Investing and Speculation. 

Analysis of Tales of Suspense issues 39 to 99

Introduction and Material and Methods

      In order to isolate potential key issues to focus my investing efforts on, I used a data analysis approach based on established values from two collecting universes within in the entire run of the silver age Tales of Suspense (TOS issues 39 to 99), I gathered value data from a variety of sources representing both serious investors (Insiders – I) and not serious investors (Outsiders-O).

    This data is current as on 3/2015. I choose to keep my methodology and data gathering proprietary at this time but I am giving my readers a simplified representation of my data that I currently use for my decisions.
Results – Tales of Suspense (TOS issues 39 to 99)

Table 1. Bias Scores (B SCORE) of All Issues in the Run


Issue
B Score

Issue
B Score
#39
722.1

#71
-5.9
#40
-12.6

#72
-3.8
#41
15.0

#73
-6.0
#42
38.0

#74
-6.1
#43
13.2

#75
-2.7
#44
23.7

#76
-6.4
#45
24.4

#77
-6.9
#46
-37.0

#78
-4.4
#47
1.2

#79
-3.9
#48
-1.5

#80
-5.4
#49
12.5

#81
-5.5
#50
16.5

#82
-4.7
#51
15.7

#83
-6.1
#52
19.3

#84
-6.1
#53
3.7

#85
-6.7
#54
-1.9

#86
-4.3
#55
13.2

#87
-4.5
#56
1.6

#88
-6.3
#57
21.3

#89
-4.4
#58
13.6

#90
-5.6
#59
-2.4

#91
-5.5
#60
0.7

#92
-6.4
#61
-4.2

#93
-5.8
#62
-0.8

#94
-3.4
#63
-1.0

#95
-7.8
#64
-4.9

#96
-3.8
#65
-2.3

#97
-5.7
#66
3.5

#98
-6.2
#67
-3.1

#99
-4.9
#68
-4.7



#69
1.0



#70
-4.1




      Using the data based on that described in the introduction, I calculated the I/O bias (B Score) between the two groups and adjusted the scores to account for the extreme issue of TOS 39. Very high insider bias is denoted with dark purple (range 38 to 19) and high bias is denoted using light purple (range16 to 13). Minus numbers reflect a bias by the unsophisticated outsider group while positive numbers reflect bias by the sophisticated insider group. I have denoted the issues that have the insider bias with a dark grey fill-in.

      The data suggests a bias does exist and invites a deeper focus (see Tables 2 and 3). I think these data show promise in this run and that surprisingly no extremes exist in issue values biased to outsiders’ opinions. That finding may need further thought.

I note the few issues that show a slight bias (# 47, 53, 56, 60, 66, and 69) as denoted in yellow. I would put these on my watch list to expect change.  Note that issue 47 is last yellow suit appearance, 53 is the second appearance of black widow, 60 is the second appearance of the real Captain America in TOS, 66 has the Red Skull appearance and cover, and 69 has the first appearance of Titanium Man. 

Table 2.  I/O SLN numbers calculated for issues 39 to 99.

      In order to begin this deeper analysis I developed a measure called SLN. The SLN looks at the slope of the values in both the I/O databases from 9.4 to 6 conditions. Table 1 shows the SLN values between issues 39 to 99.  Note issue 39 is off-scale but shows a bias to the Insiders

Issue
I SLN
O SLN

Issue
I SLN
O SLN
#39
138.9
99.0

#71
0.2
0.4
#40
2.5
10.3

#72
0.6
0.4
#41
5.7
8.3

#73
0.2
0.4
#42
8.1
4.1

#74
0.2
0.4
#43
4.5
4.1

#75
0.6
0.6
#44
5.9
4.1

#76
0.2
0.4
#45
6.2
5.0

#77
0.2
0.4
#46
2.7
3.3

#78
0.4
0.4
#47
2.1
3.3

#79
0.6
0.6
#48
2.1
5.0

#80
0.4
0.5
#49
4.4
5.8

#81
0.3
0.4
#50
4.4
2.5

#82
0.4
0.4
#51
3.9
1.7

#83
0.2
0.4
#52
6.3
5.8

#84
0.2
0.4
#53
2.1
1.7

#85
0.1
0.4
#54
1.1
0.8

#86
0.5
0.4
#55
3.2
0.8

#87
0.4
0.4
#56
1.5
0.8

#88
0.2
0.4
#57
5.9
4.1

#89
0.5
0.4
#58
4.3
3.3

#90
0.3
0.4
#59
1.7
2.9

#91
0.3
0.4
#60
1.5
1.2

#92
0.2
0.4
#61
0.7
0.8

#93
0.2
0.4
#62
1.1
0.8

#94
0.6
0.4
#63
1.4
2.1

#95
0.4
0.4
#64
0.6
0.8

#96
0.5
0.4
#65
1.2
1.7

#97
0.3
0.6
#66
1.8
1.0

#98
0.3
0.4
#67
0.7
0.5

#99
0.4
0.5
#68
0.5
0.5




#69
1.3
0.5




#70
0.5
0.5





        As I look across the data landscape, I have to focus on issue 59, which is the first Iron Man appearance. Clearly it is the star of the show in this run. I see that the SLN numbers are near but the insiders are valuing it more that outsiders (138 to 99). Next I focus attention onto the issues that insiders are valuing higher vs. the outside group; issues 42 to 45, 50 to 53, 55 to 58, 66, and 69. I see that from issues #70 to 99 that none rate any serious focus. (I note that extreme high grades equal or above 9.4 are always going to be valued greatly by both groups just due to the rarity). Green denotes I to O bias while Red denotes the opposite.

In conclusion based on this data, I suggest the green issues are the investment targets to focus on the highest grades possible while the red/white denoted issues are targets for much less if any focus. The greys are put on my watch list to monitor for any changes.   

                  Table 3. Adjusted Average Differences of I/O Data at Selected Grades

      Given the I/O differences in the data across grades, I focused on the average of those differences between the I and O data. I adjusted these averages to normalize it and allow a sharper clarity in the results. That data is presented in Table 3. $ represents I bias while x represents O bias.


Issue
C9.4 ADF
C8 ADF
C6 ADF

Issue
C9.4 ADF
C8 ADF
C6 ADF
#39
$
$
$

#71
x
x
x
#40
x
$
$

#72
x
x
x
#41
$
x
x

#73
x
x
x
#42
$
$
$

#74
x
x
x
#43
$
$
$

#75
x
$
x
#44
$
$
x

#76
x
x
x
#45
$
x
x

#77
x
x
x
#46
$
$
$

#78
x
x
x
#47
x
x
x

#79
x
x
x
#48
x
x
x

#80
x
x
x
#49
$
x
$

#81
x
x
x
#50
$
$
$

#82
x
x
x
#51
$
x
x

#83
x
x
x
#52
$
$
$

#84
x
x
x
#53
$
x
$

#85
x
x
x
#54
x
x
x

#86
x
x
x
#55
$
x
x

#87
x
x
x
#56
$
x
$

#88
x
x
x
#57
$
$
$

#89
x
x
x
#58
$
$
x

#90
x
x
x
#59
x
$
x

#91
x
x
x
#60
x
x
x

#92
x
x
x
#61
x
x
$

#93
x
x
x
#62
x
x
x

#94
x
x
x
#63
x
x
x

#95
x
$
x
#64
x
x
x

#96
x
x
x
#65
x
x
$

#97
x
x
x
#66
$
x
x

#98
x
x
x
#67
x
x
x

#99
x
x
x
#68
x
x
x





#69
x
x
x





#70
x
x
x






         Analysis of the Table 3 data revealed that I/O data in Table 1 and 2 might not reflect the whole truth. It can be seen that 7 issues are favored across the three grade levels by the I crowd (39, 42, 43, 46, 50, 52, 57). In contrast, 10 issues show only the I/O bias by the insider investors mainly in the Grade of 9.4 (41, 44, 45, 49, 51, 53, 55, 56, 58, and 66) In some of these issues the other grades of 8 and 6 are favored by the unsophisticated outsiders. I note and cannot explain issue 40. I hypothesize that since 39 is out of bounds for most; outsiders are going to issue 40 because of it being affordable relative to insides at the high grade. “I got the second Iron Man at 9.4 yea me!”  Finally the in the other issues after #66, the outsiders bias all issues in the entire run over the insiders’ opinions and buying habits.

         Based on this data, I would conclude one might focus on the 7 dark purple denoted issues in the lesser cheaper grades while the lighter purple issues would those you should focus on only in highest grades or not at all. Other issues are not recommended for a focus effort at this time. Note this table may be of greater usage and certainly suggests a different approach, as did the data in Table 2

Legend for Focusing on Table 3’s Data

$ $ $ ----- I-bias is strong across the grades                          High Focus

$ $ x ----- I-bias is stronger in the higher grades                      Mid Focus     
$ x $ ----- I-bias is only in the high grade 9.4                   
$ x x ----- I-bias is only in the high grade 9.4                   
x $ $ ----- Some I-bias but not in the high grade              

x x $ ----- Some I-bias but not in the high grade                     Light/Low Focus
x $ x ----- Some I-bias but not in the high grade                

x x x ----- O-bias across all grades                                          No Focus


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